决战棋牌

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                      • 探索政治经济因素互动下贸易政策的生成机制

                        大一政治经济学论文热门推荐10篇之第八篇:探索政治经济因素互动下贸易政策的生成机制 摘要: 将国际贸易理论和新政治经济学结合起来研究贸易政策制定,是20世纪80年代以来发展起来的经济学分支。现有文献通过构建贸易政策内生模型,研究了贸易政策政治决策过程及其影
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                        大一政治经济学论文热门推荐10篇之第八篇:探索政治经济因素互动下贸易政策的生成机制

                          摘要:国际贸易理论和新政治经济学结合起来研究贸易政策制定,是20世纪80年代以来发展起来的经济学分支。现有文献通过构建贸易政策内生模型,研究了贸易政策政治决策过程及其影响因素,探索政治经济因素互动下贸易政策的生成机制,政府作为"调停人"、"自治者"以及利益集团在政治决策中的角色定位和影响。本文希望通过梳理贸易政策政治经济学的理论脉络、贸易政策政治决策过程及其影响因素、政府和利益集团在贸易政策决策中的角色定位,有助于我国贸易政策的妥善制定。

                          关键词:贸易政策; 政治经济学; 利益集团; 贸易保护;

                          Abstract:

                          Combining international trade theory with new political economy and exploring the formulation and decision-making mechanism of international trade policy is an important branch of economics, which has risen rapidly since the 1980 s. By constructing the theoretical model of the endogeneity of trade policy, or carrying out the econometric analysis, scholars investigated the determinants and restrictions of trade policy in the process of formulation, and explore the generating mechanism of trade policy with the interaction of political and economic factors. This paper summarizes recent research progress in the field of political economy of trade policy from the perspective of theory, measurement and empirical research. Existing studies analyzes how trade policy affects trade through the process of formulating trade policy and welfare analysis. Empirical research centered on the efficiency of trade protection policy and gains from lobbying, including the determinants and policy-making process of trade protection as well as the applications of interest model. Based on the above research, differences in trade protection between China and the United States are discussed, in the hope of improving the policy-making process of China's trade policy.

                          Keyword:

                          Trade Policy; Political Economy; Interest Group; Trade Protection;

                        政治经济

                          贸易自由化是促进国家经济增长,提高国家竞争力的重要举措。但是各国出于经济、政治、文化、安全等各方面考虑,时常采用贸易保护政策。20世纪80年代以来,经济学家开始倾向融合经济学与政治学研究方法,研究贸易政策内涵,推动了贸易政策政治经济学的兴起。目前,学术界对贸易政策政治经济学研究遵循两个视角:一是强调政治参与者的经济私利;二是强调选民和官员对社会关注的考量。

                          贸易政策政治经济学(Political Economy of Trade Policy)将公共选择分析范式引入新古典贸易理论,试图解释政府为何实施各种贸易干预政策。贸易政策政治经济理论考虑了政策制定的政治背景,能够较为全面揭示影响贸易政策形成及其变化的一系列政治经济因素(Baldwin,1996)。所以,本文将系统梳理贸易政策政治经济学理论决战棋牌发展脉络、贸易政策的政治决策过程、度量指标及其影响因素、政府在贸易政策决策中的角色定位等内容,以期为新时代中国构建开放型经济提供理论借鉴。

                          一、贸易政策政治经济学理论发展脉络

                          ZHENGFU、GUANYUAN、XUANMIN、GONGZHONGYIJILIYIJITUANDENGCANYUZHEZAIMAOYIZHENGCEDEJUEDINGGUOCHENGZHONGGENJUQIZISHENJIDINGMUBIAOHUOJIDELIYICHANSHENGDUIMAOYIZHENGCEDEXUQIUYUGONGJI。MAOYIZHENGCEBOYIJIEGUOYINGXIANGTAMENDEJIHUAMUBIAOHELIYI,JINERYINGXIANGTAMENDEXINGWEI。DUIYUMAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEYANJIUFENLEI,Baldwin(1996)GENJUZHENGCEZHIDINGZHEMUBIAODEBUTONG,CONG"GERENLIYI"HE"SHEHUILIYI"JIAODUJINXINGYANJIU;Rowley(1995)GENJUCANYUJUECEZHEJIAOSEDEBUTONG,CONG"XUANMIN"、"LIYIJITUAN"HE"LIFAJIGOU"JIAODUJINXINGYANJIU;Rodrik(1995)GENJULIYIJITUANXINGWEITEZHENGDEBUTONG,CONG"ZHENGZHIXIANJIN"HE"ZHENGZHIZHICHI"JIAODUJINXINGYANJIU;Neilson(1988)HEPant(1988)CONGZHENGCEGONGXUGUANXIJIAODU,JIANGMAOYIBAOHUZHENGCELILUNYANJIUFENWEI"ZHENGZHIXUQIUXING"、"ZHENGZHIGONGJIXING"HE"ZHENGZHIXUQIUHEGONGJIXING".ZHEIXIEFENLEIFANGFAGEYOUTESE,XIANGHUBUCHONG。

                          BENWENCAIYONGBaldwin(1996)FENLEIFANGFA,JIANGMAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEYANJIUFENWEILIANGLEI:DIYILEISHIJIANLIZAIJINGJIXUELIXINGJICHUSHANG,ZHENGCEZHIDINGZHE、GUANYUAN、GONGZHONG、LIYIJITUAN、WAIGUOMAOYIHUOBANHUOJINGZHENGDUISHOUDENGZHUYAOCANYUZHEYIZHUIQIUZISHENFULIZUIDAHUAWEIMUBIAO。GENJUGrossman & Helpman(1995)DUIMAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEYANJIUFENLEI,ZHEILEIMAOYIBAOHULILUNYOUKEFENWEIGUANSHUIXINGCHENGLILUN(Findlay & Wellisz,1982)、ZHENGZHIZHICHILILUN(Hillman,1982)、ZHIJIEMINZHULILUN(Mayer,1984)、XUANJUJINGZHENGLILUN(Magee et al, 1989)。DIERLEISHIQIANGDIAOZHENGCEZHIDINGZHEDUISHEHUIFULIDEGUANZHU,ZHEIYILEILILUNSHIZHENGZHIXUEJIAHEJINGJIXUEJIALIANHETICHULAIDE,ZHEIXIEMOXINGYECAIYONGLEJINGJIXUEDEFENXIFANGFA,TAMENBEIKANZUOSHINEISHENGMAOYIMOXING,QIZHONGBAOHUDAISHOUMOXINGSHIQIDAIBIAOXINGLILUN。

                          (YI)GUANSHUIXINGCHENGLILUN

                          GUANSHUIXINGCHENGLILUNFENBIEYOUFindlay & Wellisz(1982)HEFeenstra & Bhagwati(1982)TICHU。TAMENZHIJIANDECHABIEZHUYAOTIXIANZAI:DIYI,SHIYONGDEYAOSUZHONGLEIBUTONG。Findlay & Wellisz(1982)DEGUANSHUIXINGCHENGMOXINGJIADINGLIYIJITUANYOUSHUOSHIYONGDEZIYUANZHIYOULAODONGYAOSU,GENJULIANGBUMENTESHUYAOSUMOXINGGOUZAOGUANSHUINEISHENGHUAYIBANJUNHENGMOXING,JINKOUJINGZHENGCHANYEXUYAOBAOHU,CHUKOUCHANYEJITUANYAOQIUZIYOUMAOYI,SHUANGFANGFENBIEDONGYONGZIYUANTONGGUOYOUSHUOLAIYINGXIANGGUANSHUILVSHUIPING。Feenstra & Bhagwati(1982)DEGUANSHUIXINGCHENGMOXINGJIADINGLIYIJITUANYOUSHUOSHIYONGDEZIYUANBUJINYOULAODONGYAOSUHAIYOUZIBENYAOSU,BINGQIEJIADINGCUNZAIBUBIANGUIMOSHOUYIHEWANQUANJINGZHENGDELIANGGEBUMEN,LIANGGEBUMENZAISHENGCHANGUOCHENGZHONGDOUSHIYONGKEYIZIYOULIUDONGDELAODONGLIHEZIBENYAOSU。DIER,ZHENGFUDONGJIBUTONG。Findlay & Wellisz(1982)DELILUNJIADINGZHENGFUSHIZILIDE,ZHUIQIUZISHENLIYIDEZUIDAHUA。Feenstra & Bhagwati(1982)DELILUNJIADINGZHENGFUBUJINZHUIQIUZISHENLIYIDEZUIDAHUA,HAIGUANXINGONGZHONGFULI。Feenstra & Bhagwati(1982)DELILUNSHUYUBaldwin(1996)MAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEYANJIUZHONGDEDIERDAFENLEI。QIZHONG,ZHENGFUXUYAOSHEJIYIZHONGMAOYIZHENGCELAIPINGHENGTESHULIYIJITUANHEXIAOFEIZHEZHIJIANDELIYICHONGTU。

                          ZHENGFUDUIMAOYIZHENGCEDEKAOLVBUJINSHIGUOJIANEIBUDUOSHULIYIXIANGGUANZHEZHIJIANDEGUANSHUIBOYI,HAISHIGUOJIAZHIJIANDEGUANSHUIBOYI。ZHEIFANGMIANDEYANJIUZHUYAOCONGWAIGUOYOUSHUODEYINGXIANG、GUANSHUIDUIDUOBIANQUYUJINGJIDEYINGXIANGYIJIMAOYIZHENGCETIDAIDENGFANGMIANZHANKAI。ZAIWAIGUOYOUSHUODEYINGXIANGFANGMIAN,Stoyanov et al(2009)SHIYONGLELONGDUANJINGZHENGDEZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEMOXING,YANJIULEWAIGUOYOUSHUODUIZIYOUMAOYIXIEDING(FTA)CHENGYUANGUODEMAOYIZHENGCEYINGXIANG。ZAIGUANSHUIDUIDUOBIANQUYUJINGJIDEYINGXIANGFANGMIAN,Marks(2015)SHIYONGJUBUJUNHENGMOXINGPINGGU"DONGMENG10+1XIEYI"DUIYINDUNIXIYAHEZHONGGUODEZHIJIEYINGXIANG,BINGCONGZHEIXIEGUJIZHONGFENXIGAIXIEYIRUHEDUIYINDUNIXIYADEZHENGZHIJINGJICHANSHENGYINGXIANG。Leonardo et al(2018)YANJIULE1995-2013NIANJIAN50GEGUOJIAHEQUYUJINGJIZUZHIQIANSHUDE61XIANGYOUHUIMAOYIXIEDING,BINGFENXIYINGUANSHUIXIAJIANGDUIJINGJISUOCHANSHENGDEYINGXIANG,HAIJIANYANYOUGUANCHANYENEIMAOYIHEQUANQIUJIAZHILIANDUIJINGJIDEYINGXIANG。TAMENDEYANJIUBIAOMING,TONGGUOCHANYENEIMAOYIXIEDING,ZHONGJIANCHANPINDEGUANSHUIXIAJIANGYAOBIZHICHENGPINKUAIDEDUO。ZHEIYUQUANQIUJIAZHILIANRUHEYINGXIANGMAOYIZIYOUHUADELUNDIANSHIYIZHIDE。TONGSHIYEBIAOMING,CHANYENEIMAOYIDUIMAOYIZIYOUHUAKUANSONGDUDEYINGXIANGBIAOXIANCHUGUOBIECHAYI。

                        决战棋牌   (ER)ZHENGZHIZHICHILILUN

                        决战棋牌   Hillman(1982)TICHUDEJINGJIGUANZHILILUNJIASHE,ZHENGFUMUBIAOSHIZHUIQIUZHENGZHIZHICHIZUIDAHUAERBUSHIXUNQIUSHEHUIFULIMUBIAO,ZHENGFUWEILEZUIDAXIANDUDIDEDAOCHANYELIYIJITUANYIJIXIAOFEIZHEDEZHENGCEZHICHI,XUYAOZAILIYIJITUANYUXIAOFEIZHEZHIJIANZUOCHUQUANHENG,GUANSHUISHUILVDEXUANZEKEYIKANZUOSHIZUIYOUHUAWENTIDEJIE。Hillman(1989)ZHICHUMAOYIBAOHUZHENGCESHISHIQUJINGZHENGYOUSHIDESHUAITUIXINGYEXIANGZHENGFUYOUSHUODEJIEGUO。DANSHI,MAOYIBAOHUCHENGDUDETIGAOBUNENGWANQUANBUCHANGSHUAITUIXINGYEYOUYUQIYECHANCHUSHIJIEJIAGEDEXIAJIANGERZAOSHOUDAODESUNSHI。SUOYIDANGSHIJIEJIAGEXIAJIANGSHI,WULUNTIGAOHAISHIJIANGDIBAOHUXINGGUANSHUI,SHUAITUIXINGYEJIANGJIXUSHUAITUI。MAOYIBAOHUZHENGCEYEXUNENGZANSHIZUZHICHANYESHUAITUI,YINERNENGGOUWEICHANYETEDINGZICHANDESUOYOUZHETIGONGGENGDUODESHIJIANLAISHIYINGBULIDEMAOYIBIANHUA,DANSHIZUIDAHUADEZHENGZHIZHICHIYEKENENGJIAKUAICHANYEDESHUAITUI。Bechtel et al(2012)JIYURUISHIDIAOCHASHUJU,HENGLIANGGERENDUIHUANJINGDEGUANZHUCHENGDUYIJIDUIMAOYIZHENGCEDEPIANHAO,JIANYANGENGJIAGUANZHUHUANJINGDERENSHIFOUYONGYOUGENGGAODEMAOYIBAOHUZHUYIQINGXIANG。YANJIUJIEGUOBIAOMING,GUANZHUHUANJINGDERENGENGQINGXIANGYURENWEIQUANQIUHUADEFUMIANYINGXIANGYUANDAYUZHENGMIANYINGXIANG,GENGJIAJIANDINGZHICHIYUJIUYEXIANGGUANDEMAOYIBAOHUZHUYIZHENGCE,BINGQIEZAIPINGGUWAIGUOCHANPINSHIGENGJIAZHONGSHIJIAGEHEZHILIANGYIWAIDEDONGXI。Karacaovali et al(2015)ZESHIYONGZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEMOXINGYANJIUFAZHANZHONGGUOJIAMAOYIZHENGCEDEJUEDINGYINSUHEMAOYIGAIGE,DECHUZHENGFUTONGGUOPINGHENGSHENGCHANZHEYUXIAOFEIZHEDEZHENGZHIZHICHILAIQUEDINGGUANSHUI,TONGSHIXIANGDUIYUPUTONGXUANMIN,SHENGCHANZHEFULIJUYOUGENGGAODEZHENGZHIQUANZHONG。

                          (SAN)ZHIJIEMINZHULILUN

                          在直接民主制度下,假设每一位选民都直接参与投票,此时,处于所有投票者最优偏好结果的中间状态的投票者(即中位选民)的决定作用是明显的。Mayer(1984)提出了关税形成的直接民主模型,即中间选民模型。该模型假定个人收入是其拥有的多种生产要素收益和再分配的关税收入之和,国家关税率由全民投票来决定。中间选民对部门专用要素所有权拥有的份额越高,关税的税率就越高,该部门的产量也就越高。更高的产量水平意味着更多的利益,则高关税就更加有利可图。进口需求函数的弹性越小,关税的额外负担就越低。这个额外负担部分是由中间选民承担的,因此,边际成本越低,高关税就越受到偏爱。但是,由于多数国家是代议制民主国家,贸易保护措施是在代议制民主环境下形成的,所以直接民主模型缺乏对现实的解释力。Krishna(2005)将中间选民模型运用到双边贸易协定、多边贸易协定中,研究从封闭经济走向双边或多边贸易协定过程中国家可能出现的损益情况。

                          GUOJIZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEZHUYAOYANJIUFANGFASHIJIASHEGERENHETUANTIZHENGCEPIANHAOFANYINGGERENJINGJILIYIDEZHUIQIU,RANERZUIJINYANJIUCHENGGUOBIAOMING,XUANMINDUIMAOYIZHENGCEMEIYOUJINGJIZILIFANGMIANDEPIANHAO。Houseman et al(2014)DUICIJIASHETICHULEZHIYI,TONGGUOXUANMINWENTIJINYIBUJIESHIYOUXIEMAOYIZHENGCEZAIXUANJUZHONGGENGJIAYOUXIAO。MAOYIMOSHIQUJUEYUXUANMINZISHENLIYIHEDUIBUTONGCHENGDUBAOHUZHUYIDEPIANHAO,MAOYICHENGWEIZHEIXIEXUANMINZUIGUANZHUDEWENTI。TONGGUOYANJIUKEZHI,DUOSHUXUANMINBULEJIEBAOHUZHUYIZHENGCEDEJINGJIHOUGUO。RUGUOXUANMINGENGDUODILEJIEMAOYIDEFENPEIXIAOYING,ZEGERENLIYIYUZHENGCEPIANHAOZHIJIANDEXIANGGUANXINGJIANGHUIJIAQIANG(Rho et al,2017)。ZAIZHONGJIANXUANMINMOXINGTUOZHANYANJIUZHONG,TONGGUOYANJIUYIXIEGUOJIADEJINGJIBUMENFAXIAN,SHUISHOU、BUTIE、MAOYIBAOHUDENGZHENGCEXIAOGUOGENGWEIXIANZHU。

                        决战棋牌   (SI)XUANJUJINGZHENGLILUN

                          ZAIXUANJUJINGZHENGGUOCHENGZHONG,LIYIJITUANTONGCHANGHUIJIZHENGDANGHEHOUXUANRENTIGONGJUANXIANYITIGAOTAMENDANGXUANDEKENENGXING。Magee et al(1989)YANJIULEMAOYIBAOHUZHENGCEXINGCHENGZHONGDEZHENGDANGJINGZHENGWENTI。JIASHECUNZAILIANGGEZHENGDANG,ZAILIYIJITUANJUANXIANZHIQIANJIUBIAOMINGZIJIDEZHENGZHIPIANHAO,BUTONGLIYIJITUANDEZHENGZHIJUANXIANBUYINGXIANGQIZHENGCELICHANG,ERZHIYINGXIANGBUTONGZHENGDANGDANGXUANDEKENENGXING。TONGGUOLIANGGELIYIJITUANZUIDAHUAQIWANGSHOUYIHELIANGGEZHENGDANGZUIDAHUADANGXUANDEBOYIJUNHENGJIEDECHUZHENGDANGXUANZEDEMAOYIZHENGCE。YOUSHUOJITUANHUIXIANGLIANGGEZHUYAOZHENGDANGTIGONGJUANXIAN,ERQIEFEICHANGPUBIAN,DANMagee et al(1989)JIADINGYIGEYOUSHUOJITUANZUIDUOZHINENGXIANGYIGEZHENGDANGTIGONGJUANXIAN,QITADEXUEZHEKUOZHANLEZHEIFANGMIANDEYANJIU。Tovar et al(2011)YANJIULENEIZAIYOUSHUOCHENGBENRUHEYINGXIANGMAOYIZHENGCE。ZAIGAIMOXINGZHONG,XINXIYOUSHUOCHENGBENZAIQUEDINGBAOHUJIEGOUZHONGQIZUOYONG,TESHULIYIQUNTIKEYIXUANZEXIANGJUECEZHEFASONGYOUGUANQIYONGYOUDEMOUXIEXINXIDEXINHAO,ZHONGYAODESHI,JUECEZHEZAIZHIDINGMAOYIZHENGCEZHIQIANHUIGUANCHADAOGAIXINHAO。YANJIUBIAOMING,YOUSHUOZHICHUZAIJIESHIKUABUMENBAOHUCHAYIFANGMIANQIZHEZHONGYAOZUOYONG。CIWAI,GAIMOXINGRENWEISHEHUIFULIXIANGDUIYUZHENGZHIJUANKUANDEQUANZHONGDADAJIANGDI。Kagitani(2011)YANJIULEGONGHUIJIQIMUGONGSIDEYOUSHUODUISHUANGGUATOUZHANLVECHUKOUZHENGCEZHUZHANGDEYINGXIANG。YUZIYOUMAOYIXIANGBI,YOUYOUSHUOYINQIDECHUKOUZHENGCEJINGCHANGSHIGUONEIFULIEHUA。RUGUOGONGHUIDEYIJIANENGLIQIANGQIEGUONEIZHENGFUDUIZHENGZHIJUANKUANDEFANYINGNENGLIJIAORUO,ZEYOUZHENGZHIJUEDINGDECHUKOUZHENGCEKEYIGAISHANGUONEIFULI。DANSHI,JISHIMANZUTIAOJIAN,SHISHIYOUYOUSHUOYINQIDECHUKOUZHENGCEYEBUHUIBIGAISHANLAOZIGUANXIGENGNENGTIGAOJIATINGFULI。CIWAI,YOUSHUOJIANGZUAITAMENZHIJIANGUANXIDEGAISHAN。ZHEIXIEJIEGUOBIAOMING,CONGZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEJIAODUKAN,YINGXIANZHIGONGHUIJIQIMUGONGSIDEYOUSHUOYINGXIANGSHUANGGUATOUDEZHANLVECHUKOUZHENGCE。SUIRANZHIQIANYOUXUEZHERENWEI,GUOWAILIYIJITUANDUIZHENGFUMAOYIZHENGCEDEYOUSHUODUIGUONEIJINGJISHIYOUSUNSHIDE,DANZHEIZHONGYOUSHUOHENKENENGHUIJIANSHAOMAOYIBILEI,TIGAOXIAOFEIZHESHENGYU,JINERTIGAOGAIGUODEFULI(Gawande et al,2012)。JIYUTOUPIAOJINGJUANKUANMOXING,Oladi(2012)YANJIULELIYIJITUANDUIMEIGUOLIFAZHEZAIGUOJIMAOYIZHENGCEWENTIDEQIANZAIYINGXIANG,YANJIUBIAOMING,DUIYUGONGHUIHEQITAGONGSIJITUANERYAN,ZHEIXIEJUANKUANFEICHANGYOUXIAO。Lee(2017)ZAIZIYOUMAOYIXIEDINGXIAYANJIULEWAIGUOYOUSHUODEYINGXIANG,YANJIUJIEGUOBIAOMING,WAIGUOYOUSHUOHUODONGDECUNZAIDUIGUONEIMAOYIZHENGCEYOUZHONGDAYINGXIANG。ZAIFTAHEZUOHUOBANGUOJIAZHONG,YOUZUZHIDEYOUSHUOTUANTIDECUNZAIWANGWANGHUIZENGJIAMAOYIBILEI,ERRUGUOCHUKOUSHANGLAIZIFTAYIWAIDEGUOJIA,YOUZUZHIDEYOUSHUOTUANTIDUIMAOYIBAOHUZHENGCEDEYINGXIANGJIAOSHAO。

                        决战棋牌   (WU)BAOHUDAISHOULILUN

                        决战棋牌   Grossman & Helpman(1994)TICHULEYINGXIANGDANGQUANZHENGFUDEZHENGZHIXIANJINMOXING,JI"BAOHUDAISHOU"(protection for sale)MOXING,GAILILUNSHIQIJINGUOJIMAOYIZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEFENXIZHONGZUIZHONGYAODELILUNGONGXIANZHIYI。ZAIGAILILUNZHONG,BENGUOZHENGFUBUJINZUIDAHUAGUOMINFULI,ERQIEGUANXINCONGMEIGEYOUSHUOJITUANNEILIHUODEDEJUANXIAN。MOXINGFENXIBIAOMING,LIYIJITUANDEZHENGZHIXIANJINYINGJIZHONGYUYISHENGCHUDEDANGQUANZHENGFU,BAOKUOJUNHENGGUANSHUIYEQUJUEYUBUTONGXINGYEDEJINKOUDANXING、JINKOUSHENTOULV、ZONGTILIYIJITUANRENSHUBILIYIJISHIFOUYOUXIAODIZUCHENGLIYIJITUAN。ZHIYAOCHANYENEIBUCUNZAILIYIJITUAN,BINGXIANGZHENGFUTIGONGZHENGZHIGONGXIAN,QIBIANKEXIANGSHOUDAOGUANSHUIBAOHU。ERWEICHENGLILIYIJITUANDECHANYEZEXURENSHOUFUBAOHU。Facchini et al(2006)JIANGCHANPINTIDAILVYINRUDAO"BAOHUDAISHOU"MOXINGDANGZHONGFAXIAN,RUGUOJINKOUCHANPINYUBENGUOCHANPINDETIDAILVYUEDA,NEIMEBENGUOCHANPINSUOZAIXINGYEDEDAODEMAOYIBAOHUJIUYUEQIANG。ZAILIYIJITUANDEYINGXIANGXIA,ZHISHICHANQUANBAOHUZHENGCEDEJUECEGUOCHENGQUYUFUZA,YEDAOZHILEZHISHICHANQUANMAOYIMOCADEJIAJU,CONGZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEJIAODUFENXIZHISHICHANQUANDEJUECEGUOCHENGKEZHI,ZHISHICHANQUANBAOHUZHENGCESHIYOUZHENGFU,LIYIJITUANHEGONGZHONGZHIJIANDEBOYIJUEDINGDE。YOUYUGEXINGYEZHENGZHIZUZHITIAOJIANDEBUTONG,ZHISHICHANQUANCHANYEDEBAOHULVYEBUTONG,ZHEIJIANGYINQIGUOJIMAOYIZHONGZHISHICHANQUANDEMOCA(Wu,2011)。Gu & Shen(2014)TONGGUO"BAOHUDAISHOU"MOXINGGOUJIANLEZAIBUWANQUANJINGZHENGTIAOJIANXIADEMAOYIBAOHUZHENGCEYINGXIANGYINSUFENXIMOXING,KAOCHALEZHONGGUOMAOYIBAOHUZHENGCEZHONGDEZHENGZHIYINGXIANGYINSU,BINGQIELIYONG2004-2012NIANJIANZHONGGUO36GEXINGYEDESHUJUDUIJIELUNJINXINGLEJINGYANYANZHENG。

                          ZAILIYIJITUANYOUSHUOFANGMIAN,JIEZHU"BAOHUDAISHOU"MOXINGDECHUZHONGMEIJISHUCHAJUDESUOXIAOHUITONGGUOYINGXIANGMAOYINICHAYUZHENGZHIJUANXIANDEXIANGHUZUOYONGLAIYINGXIANGMEIGUODUIHUAMAOYIZHENGCE。ZHONGMEIJISHUCHAJUSUOXIAO、MAOYINICHA(HUOJINKOUSHENTOULV)HELIYIJITUANZHENGZHIYOUSHUOSHIMEIGUODUIHUAFANQINGXIAODEZHUYAOYINGXIANGYINSU,JINGJIYINSUDUIMEIGUODUIHUAFANQINGXIAOYINGXIANGJIAOXIAO。ZAICUNZAILIYIJITUANZHENGZHIYOUSHUODEQINGKUANGXIA,ZHONGMEIJISHUCHAJUSUOXIAOHEMAOYINICHA(HUOJINKOUSHENTOULV)ZENGJIATIGAOLEMEIGUODUIHUAFANQINGXIAODEGAILV(Yang et al,2018)。Amrita(2019)TONGGUODUIZHENGZHIZUZHIDEDULIANGLAIGUJIYINDUDE"BAOHUDAISHOU"MOXING,LIYONGMIANBANSHUJULAIPINGGUXIANGDUIYOUSHUODEYOUXIAOXING。YANJIUBIAOMING,DUIYUZUIYOUXIAODEBUMENLAISHUO,GAOCHANCHUBIYIWEIZHEGENGGAODEMAOYIBAOHU;DUIYUXIAOLVZUIDIDEXINGYE,CHANCHUYUJINKOUZHIBIYUEGAO,MAOYIBAOHUJIUYUEDI。

                          二、贸易政策政治决策形成、度量指标与影响因素

                          MAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJINGJIXUESHIYIGECHOUXIANGDEGAINIAN。MAOYIZHENGCEDEZHENGZHIJUECEGUOCHENG、XINGCHENGJIZHI、ZHIBIAOXUANZEHEDULIANG、YINGXIANGYINSUDENG,DOUSHIMAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEDEZHONGYAOYANJIUNEIRONG。

                          (YI)MAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJUECEGUOCHENG

                          贸易政策是各个国家使用政治手段决定经济制度,而对其的政治经济研究就是对国家政治、经济、军事决战棋牌力量等的综合研究,是各国国内政治经济诸因素综合作用的结果,是如实反映各种集团利益决策的政治过程。贸易政策政治经济学试图从贸易保护政策政治决策过程的角度,探究贸易保护和贸易干预的原因、水平、结构、形式及其变化,这在一定程度上提高了人们对贸易保护政策的"科学"认识(Grossman & Helpman,1995)。现有文献从贸易政策政治决策过程的角度,从货物贸易、服务贸易和外商直接投资等方面,探究了贸易收入分配规则、群体间收入分配、贸易开放、生产要素可替代性、行业就业规模和劳动力市场灵活性等影响因素对相关主体政府官员、利益集团、国际组织等的行动方式的影响。

                        决战棋牌   ZAIMAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJUECEGUOCHENGZHONG,YINGXIANGYINSUKANZUOSHISHURUBIANLIANG,GUANSHUIHEFEIGUANSHUIBILEIDENGMAOYIBAOHUSHOUDUANKANZUOSHISHUCHUBIANLIANG。ZAIMAOYIYINLIMOXINGKUANGJIAXIA,SHOULIYIJITUANDEYINGXIANG,GUANSHUIHEFEIGUANSHUIMAOYIBAOHUSHOUDUANYIRANSHIDISHOURUSHUIPINGGUOJIAMAOYIBAOHUDEZHONGYAOCUOSHI(Hoekman & Nicita,2010)。Wang et al(2015)ZAILIYIJITUANMOXINGDEJICHUSHANG,JIEHEGUOJIHUNHEGUATOULONGDUANMOXING,YANJIULELIYIJITUANZHONGZUIYOUSIYOUHUAHEMAOYIZHENGCEDEGUANXI。YANJIUBIAOMING,ZUIJIAZHENGCEZUHESHILIYIJITUANDEBUFENSIYOUHUAHEJIAZHENGGUANSHUI。

                          MAOYIBAOHUZHUYISHI"ZIRANDE",CONGMAOYIBAOHUZHENGCEZHONGHUODEDESHOUYISHOUDAOMAOYITIAOJIANDEYINGXIANG(Haaland & Venables,2016)。YINCI,GEGUOZAIMEIYOULAIZIQITAGUOJIAYALIHUOYUQITAGUOJIAYOUGONGTONGQIWANGDEQINGKUANGXIA,TONGCHANGBUHUIDUIXIANGHUJINGZHENGDEJINKOUCHANPINKAIFANG;ZHIYOUDANGGUANLIAOBUSHOUZHENGZHIYALIDEYINGXIANGSHI,TAMENCAIHUIZHEIYANGZUO。MAOYIBAOHUCHENGDUYINZHENGZHITIZHIHUOZHENGQUANLEIXINGERYI。LIRU,YIYIHUI(ERFEIZONGTONG)HEYIHOUXUANRENWEIZHONGXIN(ERBUSHIYIZHENGDANGWEIZHONGXIN)DEXUANJUZHIDUWANGWANGYOUJIAOGAODESHUILV。Hatch(2017)RENWEI,YOUZUZHIHEJIZHONGDELIYIJITUANSUODAIBIAODEYIFANGZONGSHIGENGYOUNENGLIQUEBAOBUSHOUJINKOUDEYINGXIANG,YINWEITAMENYOUGENGDADENENGLIKEFUJITIXINGDONGWENTI。Acharya(2018)DEYANJIUCHENGGUOYEBIAOMING,ZHENGFUCAIQUJINKOUGUANSHUIDEYOUHUICUOSHIERFEICHUKOUBUTIESHIYOUSHUODEJIEGUO。Kim et al(2019)DANGPAIJINGZHENGDAOZHIXIANRENZHENGFUCAIQUYOUZHUYUQUEBAOQIXUANMINZHICHIZHEHUODEJINGJILIYIDEZHENGCE,ERZHEIZHONGSHOUYISHIYIFANDUIPAIZHICHIZHEDELIYISHOUSUNWEIDAIJIADE。

                        决战棋牌   MAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJUECEGUOCHENGSHOUDAOHENDUOYINSUDEYINGXIANG。ZAOQIDEJINGJIXUEJIARENWEI,QIYESHUMUSHAO、DILIJIZHONGDUGAO、MAIFANGJIZHONGDUGAODEXINGYEGENGRONGYIXINGCHENGYOUSHUO,BINGQIEZHEIXIEXINGYEHUODEBAOHUSHUIPINGDENENGLIYEJIAOQIANG。ZUIXINYANJIUBIAOMING,RUGUOJIANGQIYEYIZHIXINGYINRULIYIJITUANMOXING,NEIMEMAOYIZHENGCEDEZHENGZHIJUECEGUOCHENGJIANGSHOUDAOQIYEYOUSHUONENGLIDEYINGXIANG,ERQIYEGUIMOYUEDAYOUSHUONENGLIYUEQIANG(Bombardini,2008)。Mukherjee et al(2009)JIANGLAODONGLILIUDONGCHENGDUYINRULIYIJITUANMOXINGJINXINGYANJIUFAXIAN,DANGBUMENJIANLAODONGLILIUDONGXINGBIANRUOSHI,MINZHUGUOJIAGENGRONGYICAIQUBAOHUMAOYIDEZHENGCE。SHENGCHANZUIZHONGCHANPINDELIYIJITUANHEZHONGJIANTOURUPINDEXIAYOULIYIJITUANDEYOUSHUOJINGZHENGHUIYINGXIANGMAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJUECEDEGUOCHENG。

                          Thies(2015)TONGGUOFENXIJINGHEZUZHIGUOJIANONGYESHENGCHANZHEZHICHIDEZHENGZHIJUEDINGYINSUFAXIAN,NONGYEHEGONGYEBUMENDEBAOHUZHUYIWAIJIAOZHENGCECUNZAIXIANGSIXING。NONGYESHENGCHANZHEDEZHENGZHIZHICHIMOSHIYUQITACHANYEDEBAOHUZHUYIMOSHIXIANGSI。Ina & Marcel(2017)YUNYONGH-OMOXINGYANJIULEMAOYIZHENGCEDEFENPEIXIAOYING,YANJIUJIEGUOBIAOMING,MAOYIBAOHUZHENGCEYINQIDEYAOSUJIAGEBIANHUAYUZIYOUMAOYIDEYAOSUHANLIANGCHENGFUXIANGGUAN,JIYAOSUJIAGESHANGSHENG,ZIYOUMAOYIDECHENGDUXIAJIANG。HAIYOUXUEZHECONGZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEDEJIAODUJIESHILEKUAQUNTIHEGERENDEBAOHUZHUYIXUQIUDEBIANHUA,RENWEIDADUOSHUNONGMINXIWANGCONGMAOYIBAOHUZHONGHUODEMAOYIBAOHU,ZHEISHIYINWEITAMENTONGGUOMAOYIBAOHUHUODEDERENJUNSHOUYITONGCHANGJIAOGAO。

                          GUANYUMAOYIZHENGCEDELINGYIGEWENTISHI,MAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJUECESHIFOUYOUZHUYUGUONEIWENDINGHEJINGJIZENGZHANG,LIYIJITUANYOUSHUOXIADEBAOHUZHUYIZHENGCESHIFOUTIGAOLEJINGJIZENGZHANG(Canto & Wiese,2018)。ZAIJIDUANQINGKUANGXIA,MAOYIBAOHUHELIYIJITUANYOUSHUOKENENGHUINONGQIAOCHENGZHUODE。Acharya(2018)YUNYONGYIBANJUNHENGKUANGJIAYANJIULEYIGEXIAOGUODEMAOYIBAOHUZHENGCEDEZHENGZHIJUECEGUOCHENG,YANJIUJIEGUOYUXIANYOUWENXIANXIANGFAN,YOUSHUOXINGYEDEBUDAOMAOYIBAOHU,SHENZHIKENENGMIANLINMAOYISHUI。XIANRAN,CHULELIYIJITUANHEQIYEYOUSHUODENGYINGXIANGYINSUWAI,MAOYIZHENGCEHAIQUJUEYUQITAYINSU,RUMAOYISHOURUFENPEIGUIZE、QUNTIJIANSHOURUFENPEI、MAOYIKAIFANG、SHENGCHANYAOSUKETIDAIXING、XINGYEJIUYEGUIMOHELAODONGLISHICHANGLINGHUOXINGDENG。Cerdeiro & Nam(2018)TICHUBINGTAOLUNLEYITAOYOUZHUYUPINGGUGEGUOMAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJUECEGUOCHENGDEYINGXIANGYINSUDEZHIBIAOTIXI,ZHEIXIEYINGXIANGYINSUSHEJIHUOWUMAOYI、FUWUMAOYIHEWAISHANGZHIJIETOUZI。QIYANJIUBIAOMING,SHOUZHEIZHONGXIEYINSUYINGXIANG,FADAJINGJITITEBIESHIXINXINGJINGJITI,SUIZHESHIJIANDEYANJIN,ZHENGCHAOZHEBAOHUZHUYIDETIZHIYANBIAN。

                        决战棋牌   (ER)MAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJUECEXINGCHENGJIZHI

                        决战棋牌   WEILEZAIBAOHUZHUYIYUMAOYIZIYOUHUAZHIJIANXUNZHAOYIGEPINGHENGDIAN,"ZIYOUJIGONGPINGMAOYIGUANNIAN"QUDAILE"ZIYOUMAOYIYUBAOHUZHUYIZHIZHENG"(Baldwin,2009)。ZIYOUJIGONGPINGMAOYISHIYIZHONGYOUXUANZEDEMAOYIZIYOUHUA,JIANGMAOYIZIYOUHUAXIANDINGZAITEDINGCHANYEBUMENHETEDINGMAOYIHUOBANZHIJIAN。ZHONGMEIMAOYIZUOWEIQUANQIUZUIDADEMAOYIGUO,ZHONGMEIMAOYIZHENGCEJUECEWENTIJUYOUYIDINGDEDAIBIAOXING。ZHONGMEIMAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJUECEBEIHOUYINZANGZHESHIFENFUZADEGUONEIXINGSHIHELIYIJITUANDELIYIQUXIANG,QIANGLIEYINGXIANGZHELIANGGUOMAOYIZHENGCEZOUSHI。GONGZHONGCHIYOUDEMAOYIGUANNIANDEBIANHUAYEZENGJIALEMAOYIZHENGCEXINGCHENGGUOCHENGZHONGDEZHENGZHIFENQI。XIANYOUWENXIANZHUYAOSHIKUOZHANLE"BAOHUDAISHOU"MOXING,TONGGUOZAIYUANSHIMOXINGZHONGNARUZHIZHENGZHEMOUQIUJINGXUANZHICHIHEJINXINGQUANLIWEIPAIDEYINSU,KAOCHALEZHIZHENGZHE、XINGZHENGJIGOUTONGGELEIXUANMINHUDONG,ZUIZHONGJUEDINGMAOYIZHENGCEDEJIZHI。XIANYOUWENXIANTONGGUOGOUJIANJIESHIMAOYIZHENGCENEISHENGGUOCHENGDELILUNMOXING,ZHENGHEMAOYILILUN、XUANJULILUNHEQUANLIWEIPAIDENGJINGJIXUEFENZHI,BINGNARUZHENGZHIXUEDEFENXIKUANGJIA,JIESHILEMAOYIZHENGCEDEXINGCHENGJIZHI。

                          CONGLIYIJITUANKAN,MAOYIBUPINGHENG、HUILVWENTI、ZHISHICHANQUANBAOHU、SHIYEHEBUGONGPINGMAOYICHENGWEIGONGSHANGYEGENGWEIGUANZHUDEWENTI(Nakayama et al,2006)。Barros et al(2019)RENWEI,NANFANGGONGTONGSHICHANGYUELAIYUESHOUDAOXUDUOGUOJIAHEGUOJIZUZHIDEZHUIPENG,ZHEIZHONGXIYINLIDETURANZENGZHANGFANYINGLEWAIBUHENEIBUYINSUDEBIANHUA。Francois & Nelson(2014)DEYANJIUBIAOMING,MEIGUOYUOUZHOU、YATAIGUOJIA(BUHANZHONGGUO)TANPANJIANLIQUYUZIYOUMAOYIXIEDINGZHIZAIJIANLIMAOYIGUANLIJIZHI,WEIZHANGQIZHUZAIMAOYIZHENGCEDETESHULIYIFUWU。Di Tella & Rodrik(2019)ZAIYANJIUZHENGFUXINGWEIPIANHAOHEBUTONGLEIXINGLAODONGLISHICHANGCHONGJIDAOZHICAIYUANWENTISHIFAXIAN,ZAIJISHUBIANGE、XUQIUZHUANYIHEGUOJIWAIBAODENGQINGKUANGXIA,MEIGUOJINKOUBAOHUHEWAIBAOJIFAZHANZHONGGUOJIAYINFADEMAOYIBAOHUZHUYIXUQIUXIANZHUZENGJIA。XIANRAN,WEIYINGDUIZHEIXIECHONGJI,LIYIJITUANDUIZHENGFUGANYUJIJUSHANGSHENG,MAOYIZHENGCEGENGPIANXIANGMAOYIBAOHUZHUYI。

                          CONGJINGJIXINGSHILAIKAN,JINNIANLAIXIFANGFASHENGBAOKUOYIMIN、GUOJIMAOYI、JISHUJINBU、OUYUANYINRUHEQIHOUZHENGCEDENGZHENGZHIJINGJISHIJIANSUNHAILEGONGXINJIECENGHEXUDUOZHONGCHANJIEJIDELIYI。ZHONGMEIMAOYIZHENGDUAN、YINGGUOTUOOU、OUMENGJIQICHENGYUANGUOJIANMAOYIZHENGCEDENGWENTIDEZHENGCECHULIDOUYINGSHIGENJUGUOJIAZHENGCEZHONGXINSHANGYIDE(Van der Ploeg,2017)。Inkyo et al(2018)PINGGULEMEIGUOMAOYIBAOHUZHUYITAITOUDUIZHONGGUO、RIBEN、HANGUOHEDONGMENGGUOJIAJINGJIDEJINGJIYINGXIANG。YANJIUJIEGUOBIAOMING,MEIGUOJINKOUGUANSHUIDETIGAOHUIJIMEIGUOYIJISHIYONGJINKOUGUANSHUITIGAODEXIANGYINGGUOJIAHUODIQUZAOCHENGJINGJISUNSHI。RUGUOJINZENGJIAMEIGUODUIZHONGGUOSHANGPINDEJINKOUGUANSHUI,NEIMEJIUBUHUIDUIQITADONGYAGUOJIACHANSHENGRENHEYICHUYINGXIANG。DANSHI,RUGUODUISUOYOUGUOJIAHESUOYOUCHANPINZHENGSHOUBIANJINGDIAOZHENGSHUI(BAT),NEIMEJIANGCUJINMEIGUOJINGJIZENGZHANG。ZHEIYANG,FADAJINGJITIJIANGBAOCHIGDPZHANGQIZENGZHANG,ZHONGGUO、HANGUOHEDONGMENGGUOJIAJIANGZAIJIAOZHANGSHIQINEIZAOSHOUDAOJINGJISUNSHI。RUGUOZUIJIAKEXINGJISHUJINSHIYONGYUTEDINGDEDONGYAGUOJIA,NEIMEMEIGUOJIANGZAOSHOUJINGJISUNSHI。CHULEZHUANMENZHENDUIDONGMENGDEJINKOUGUANSHUIWAI,DONGMENGGUOJIAZAISUOYOUQINGKUANGXIADOUBUHUIZAOSHOURENHEJINGJISUNSHI。DANSHICONGZHANGYUANLAIKAN,ZHONGGUO、HANGUOHEDONGMENGGUOJIAJIANGHUIZAOSHOUDAOJINGJISUNSHI。

                        决战棋牌   MEIGUOMAOYIBAOHUZHUYIDETAITOUZHIHUIJIANGDONGYAGUOJIATUIXIANGGENGSHENDEJINGJIYITIHUA,DUIQUANQIUMAOYIHETOUZIGEJUCHANSHENGYANZHONGYINGXIANG,YOUQISHICICIZHONGMEIMAOYIWENTIGENGSHIXIANQIMAOYIBAOHUZHUYIDEYANJIURECHAO。Li et al(2019)JIEZHUQUANQIUYIBANJUNHENGMOXINGMONIMEIGUOMAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJUECEDUIMEIGUOZHIZAOYEJIUYEDEKENENGYINGXIANG,YANJIUFAXIAN,MEIGUOMAOYIBAOHUZHUYIJIANSHAOLEZHIZAOYEJIUYE。RUGUOMAOYIHUOBANCAIQUBAOFUCUOSHI,MEIGUODESUNSHIJIANGJINYIBUZENGJIA。SUIRANGUONEIWAISHANGPINDETIDAIXIAOYINGJUYOUZHENGMIANYINGXIANG,DANZHIZAOYEHEFUWUYEZHIJIANDETIDAIXIAOYINGYIJIBAOFUXIAOYINGDOUHUICHANSHENGFUMIANYINGXIANG。YINCI,ZHENGTIXIAOYINGSHIMEIGUOZHIZAOYEJIANGSHIQUHENDUOJIUYEJIHUI。Fajgelbaum et al(2019)FENXILE MAOYIZHANDUIMEIGUOJINGJIFAZHANDEYINGXIANG,GENJUMEIGUOHEBAOFUXINGGUANSHUIDEBIANHUAGUSUANJINKOUXUQIUHECHUKOUGONGYINGDANXINGDESHUJUXIANSHI,LAIZIMUBIAOGUOJIADEJINKOUCHANPINXIAJIANGLE31.5%,ERMEIGUODEMUBIAOCHUKOUXIAJIANGLE11.0%,MEIGUOGUANSHUIWANQUANZHUANJIADAOGELEIJINKOUCHANPINJIAGEZHONGQUZAOCHENGLEJINKOUCHENGBENDEDAFUTIGAO,NIANDUXIAOFEIZHEHESHENGCHANZHESUNSHIWEI688YIMEIYUAN(ZHANGDPDE0.37%),ZAIKAOLVDAOJIAOGAOJIAGEDUIGUONEISHENGCHANSHANGTIGAOGUANSHUISHOURUHESHOUYIHOU,ZONGFULISUNSHIWEI78YIMEIYUAN(ZHANGDPDE0.04%)。KEYIKANCHU,MEIGUOGUANSHUIYOULIYUZHENGZHIJINGZHENGLIJIAOQIANGDEXINGYEBUMEN,DANBAOFUXINGGUANSHUIDIXIAOLEBUFENLIYI。

                        决战棋牌   (SAN)MAOYIBAOHUCHENGDUDEHENGLIANGZHIBIAO

                        决战棋牌   MAOYIXIANZHIZHISHU(Trade Restriction Index)SHIYITAOCEDUMAOYIBAOHUCHENGDUDEZHIBIAO。QICONGWEIGUANJINGJIJICHUCHUFA,JIANGGEZHONGMAOYIZHENGCEDEBAOHUSHUIPINGMIAOSHUWEIYIGETONGYIGUANSHUI,GAIGUANSHUISHIZAIBAOCHICHUSHIXIAOYONGSHUIPINGBUBIANDEQIANTIXIA,SHIXINMAOYIZHUANGTAIHECHUSHIMAOYIZHUANGTAIXIADEMAOYISHOUZHICHAEBAOCHIXIANGDENGDETONGYIGUANSHUISHUIPING,ZHEIYITONGYIGUANSHUIJIWEIMAOYIXIANZHIZHISHU(Anderson & Neary,1994)。WEILEGENGJIABIANYUJISUAN,Feenstra(1995)YOUJIEHEYIBANJUNHENGDEMAOYIXIANZHIZHISHU,GOUJIANLEJUBUJUNHENGDEMAOYIXIANZHIZHISHU,LIANGLEIMOXINGXIANGHUBUCHONG,GOUCHENGLECEDUMAOYIZHENGCEBAOHUSHUIPINGDEMAOYIXIANZHIZHISHULILUN。

                          Chau et al(2003)TICHULEYIZHONGJIYUJULIHANSHUFADEMAOYIXIANZHISHULIANGZHISHU(TRQI),YONGYUHENGLIANGMAOYIXIANZHIDUIFULIDEYINGXIANG。TRQIKEFENJIEWEIMAOYINIUQUHEGUONEINIUQULIANGBUFEN。ZAIKAIFANGYUJINGJIJIXIAOZHIJIANXIANGHULIANXIZHONG,JIANGMAOYIXIANZHISUOZAOCHENGDEJINGJIXIAOLVDIXIAYUGUONEINIUQUSUOZAOCHENGDEHEMAOYIYOUGUANDEJINGJIXIAOLVDIXIAQUFENKAILAI。Anderson & Neary(2007)JIANGTRIZHEIYIGAINIANJINYIBUKUOZHAN,YIBIANXINGCHENGYUGUANSHUIPEIEXIANGTONGDEMAOYIE。TEBIEDI,Kee(2008)DENGRENTIGONGLECELIANGBUTONGBANBENTRIDECHUBUZHIDAO。

                          MAOYIXIANZHIZHISHUDUIHENGLIANGYIGEGUOJIAGUOJIMAOYIZHENGCEDEZONGTIBAOHUSHUIPINGFEICHANGYOUXIAO,GAIZHISHUDUIYUFENXIMAOYIZHENGCEDEYINGXIANGHEJIANSHAOMAOYIBILEIDETANPANSHIBIBUKESHAODE(Coughlin,2010)。Hoekman & Nicita(2011)HUIGULEMAOYIXIANZHIHEMAOYIBIANLIHUADEYIXIEZHIBIAO,BIJIAOLEBUTONGLEIXINGDEBIANJINGMAOYIXIANZHIDUIMAOYIDEYINGXIANG。Hauk et al(2012)JIYUAnderson & Neary(2005)、Kee et al(2009)DEYANJIU,ZAIYANJIUMEIGUOMAOYIZHENGCESHISHIYONGLEMAOYIXIANZHIZHISHU(TRIs),RENWEITRIsKEYIYOUXIAODIHENGLIANGMAOYIZHENGCEXIANZHIXINGWENTI。Suwanpraser(2019)RENWEITONGGUOGUANSHUIMAOYIXIANZHIZHISHUGONGSHIKEYIZHUNQUEDICELIANGFEIGUANSHUIBILEIDEZONGLIANG,ERQITAZHIBIAOZECUNZAICHIXUDECELIANGWUCHA,ZHEIYESHIMAOYIXIANZHIZHISHUZUIXINJINZHANDEYOUXIAOLIYONG。

                        决战棋牌   XUEZHEMENJINYIBUTUOZHANLEMAOYIXIANZHIZHISHUZAIBUTONGCHANYEDEYUNYONG。Croser et al(2010)JIYU75GEGUOJIADEYANGBENDUI1960-2004NIANJIAN28ZHONGZHUYAONONGCHANPINZHONGDEMEIYIZHONGJINXINGLEMAOYIXIANZHIZHISHUGUJI,RENWEISHIJIENONGCHANPINSHICHANGYIJINGGAODUNIUQULEZHENGFUDEMAOYIZHENGCE。Mitaritonna et al(2013)ZAIPINGGUXINXINGGUOJIAFENXIAOHEDIANXINXINGYESHILIYONGDUOYUANTONGJIFANGFAJIANGDINGXINGSHUJUZHUANHUAWEIMAOYIXIANZHIZONGHEZHISHU(TRCI),GUJIQIDUIJIAGE-CHENGBENLIRUNLVDEYINGXIANG。Hoekman(2015)YANJIUFAXIAN,FUWUMAOYIXIANZHIZHISHUSTRISHIYINGXIANGZHICHENGPINCHUKOUYEJIDEJUEDINGYINSU。FUWUMAOYIXIANZHIDUIZHICHENGPINCHUKOUFUMIANYINGXIANGDEZHUYAOQUDAOSHITONGGUOWAISHANGZHIJIETOUZI(FDI)。Hildegunn & Dorothée(2015)TONGGUOZAIYINLIMOXINGZHONGSHIYONGOECDZUIXINDEFUWUMAOYISHUJU,LIYONGFUWUMAOYIXIANZHIZHISHU(STRI)FENXIFUWUMAOYIZHENGCEYUFUWUKUAJINGMAOYIZHIJIANDEGUANXI。YANJIUBIAOMING,FUWUMAOYIXIANZHIYUFUWUDEJINKOUHECHUKOUDOUSHIFUXIANGGUAN。CHULEMAOYIZIYOUHUASHUIPINGDEYINGXIANGWAI,SHUANGBIANJIANGUANSHANGDECHAYIYEHUIXIANZHIFUWUMAOYI。ZAIYANJIUSHANGPINYIJIFUWUCHUKOUSHI,FUWUMAOYIXIANZHIZHISHUHEFUWUMAOYICHENGBENBEIRENWEISHIKUAGUOGONGSIZAIHUOWUHEFUWUFANGMIANHUODONGDEZUIZHONGYAODEZHENGCETUIDONGLI(Egger et al,2017)。Mukherjee(2018)JIYU2011NIANTONGJISHUJUJISUANCHULAIDEFUWUMAOYIXIANZHIZHISHU(STRI),QIANGDIAOLEGUONEIZHENGCEZAIBIANLIHUOYIZHIFUWUFANGMIANDEZHONGYAOXING。YANJIUJIEGUOBIAOMING,JINGHEZUZHIGUOJIADEMAOYIXIANZHISHIDAOZHIDADUOSHUGUOJIAJIANSHAOCHUKOUDEYUANYIN。

                        决战棋牌   (SI)MAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJUECEYINGXIANGYINSU

                          XIANYOUZHULIUWENXIANZHUYAOJIYUBAOHUDAISHOUMOXINGDULIANGMAOYIBAOHUZHENGCE,BINGFENXIQIYINGXIANGYINSU。BAOHUDAISHOUMOXINGJIANCHIZHENGFUMUBIAOHANSHUZUIDAHUAYUANZE,DUILIYIJITUANZHENGZHIXIANJINFUYUTESHUQUANZHONG,JIANGZHENGFUMUBIAOHANSHUSHEDINGWEIGONGZHONGSHEHUIFULIHEZHENGZHIXIANJINDEHANSHU。XIANSHIZHONG,MAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJUECEDEZHIDING、SHISHICHUSHOUGONGZHONGSHEHUIFULIHEZHENGZHIXIANJINYINSUDEYINGXIANG,HAISHOUDAOLAIZISHEHUIGUANZHUHEJIUYEYALIDENGYINSUDEYINGXIANG。

                        决战棋牌   1.LAIZIGONGZHONGSHEHUIFULIYALI。

                          JINGUANCUNZAIGAOANGCHENGBEN,MAOYIBAOHURENGRANCUNZAI。HENDUOYANJIUFENXIWEISHENMEYIXIECHANYEBIQITACHANYENENGHUODEGENGGAODEMAOYIBAOHU?ZAIZHENGZHIXIANJINBEIGUANGFANRENKEQIANDEHENZHANGYIDUANSHIJIANNEI,ZHENGFUTICHUDEMAOYIZHENGCETONGCHANGDOUSHICONGDAJUCHUFA,YEJIUSHIZAIMANZUDADUOSHURENLIYIDEQINGKUANGXIATIGONGGEZHONGGEYANGDESHEHUIFULI(Chang et al,2006)。ZHENGFUZAIZHIDINGMAOYIZHENGCESHIZHUYAOKAOLVGONGZHONGFULI,ERBINGBUKANZHONGZHENGZHIXIANJIN,ZHEIYIWEIZHEZHENGZHIXIANJINZAIDANGSHIBEIRENWEIJIHUBUDUIMAOYIZHENGCEZHIDINGCHANSHENGYINGXIANG。

                          LINGWAI,Freund(2008)BA"SUNSHIGUIBI"XINLINARUXINGWEIRENDEXIAOYONGHANSHU,DECHUZHENGZHIXIANJINQUANZHONGZHIBIDANGSHISHEHUIFULIQUANZHONGYOUSUOJIANGDI。ZAIYANJIUMAOYIFENPEIXINXISHIFOUHUIDAOZHISHOUFANGZHEJIANGQIJINGJILIYIYUMAOYIZHENGCEPIANHAOLIANXIQILAIFANGMIAN,Jamal et al(2019)RENWEIYOUGUANMAOYIKENENGDAILAIHAOCHUDEXINXIHUISHIRENMENDUIMAOYIZIYOUHUAZUOCHUGENGJIJIDEFANYING。ZAIGUOQUDE20NIANZHONG,FAZHANZHONGGUOJIADADAJIANGDIMAOYIBILEI,JIEGUOZAOCHENGLIANGSHIJINKOUJIZENG。JIYUGONGZHONGSHEHUIFULIZUIDAHUA,GUANZHULIYIQUNTIDEFANGFADUIYUJIESHIXIFEIDEZHENGCECHENGGUORENGRANYOUYONG,Johnson(2011)YANJIUBIAOMING,ZAI20SHIJI90NIANDAIMOHE21SHIJICHUQI,JIANA、SAINEIJIAERHEKAMAILONGDALIANGLENGDONGJIAQINJINKOUWEIXIEDAOLEGUONEIJIAQINSHENGCHAN,YUSHIKAISHIYAOQIUCAIQUMAOYIBAOHUZHUYICUOSHI。Falkowski et al(2014)LIYONGERZHANHOULAIZI74GEFAZHANZHONGGUOJIAHEFADAGUOJIADEZHENGZHIHEJINGJISHUJU,TANTAOLEZHENGZHIJINGZHENGZAIQUEDINGNONGYEBAOHUSHUIPINGFANGMIANSHIFOUQIZHEZHONGYAOZUOYONG,YANJIUJIEGUOBIAOMING,ZHENGZHIJINGZHENGDECHENGDUYUEGAO,DUINONGYEDEBAOHUYUEGAO。

                          2.LAIZIZHENGZHIXIANJINYALI。

                          Tovar(2011)RENWEIYOUSHUOZHICHUZHIJIEYINGXIANGJUNHENGZHENGCE,BINGZAIBUTONGBUMENDEBAOHUBIANHUAFANGMIANFAHUIZHEZHONGYAOZUOYONG。CIWAI,ZHENGFUDUISHEHUIFULIDEFENPEIQUANZHONGYAOBIZHENGZHIXIANJINDIDEDUO。Gawande(2012)WEILEJIANYANBINGPANDUANZHENGFUDUIYULIYIJITUANSUOFUQUANZHONGDEDAXIAO,ZHIJIEJIANGQUANZHONGZHIHEGANRAOXIANGZUOWEIJIESHIBIANLIANGJINXINGHUIGUI。YANJIUBIAOMING,RUGUOMOUXINGYEDECHANPINBEIXIAYOUXINGYEZUOWEIZHONGJIANPINSHIYONG,XIAYOUXINGYEYOUNENGGOUZUCHENGLIYIJITUANDUIJUECEZHETIGONGZHENGZHIXIANJIN,GAIXINGYESUOHUODEDEBAOHULVJIANGHUITIGAO。Chu(2015)JIYUYOUSHUOMOXINGFAXIAN,ZHIYAOZHENGCEZHIDINGZHEDUISUOHUODEDEZHENGZHIXIANJINJIYUZUGOUDUODEZHONGSHI,TIGAOSHEHUIFULIDEZHENGCEJIUBUCHENGLI。

                        决战棋牌   3.LAIZISHEHUIGUANZHUYALI。

                          YUZHENGZHIXIANJINJIEGUOLEISIDANSHICHUZHONGQUEBUTONGDEHAIYOUSHEHUIGUANZHULILUNMOXING。BUTONGYUZHENGZHIXIANJINSHILAIYUANYULIYIJITUANDEJUANXIAN,SHEHUIGUANZHULILUNSHIZHENGFUCONGDUISHEHUISHOURUGUANZHUDEJIAODUCHUFAZHIDINGMAOYIZHENGCE。GAILILUNJIADINGGEGELIYIJITUANDESHOURUZHUANGKUANGHEQUANZHONGCHENGZHENGBI。QUANZHONGYUEDA,ZHENGFUZAIZHIDINGMAOYIZHENGCESHIYUEZHONGSHIGAIJITUANDELIYI。ZAIZHENGFUGUANZHUSHEHUISHOURUFANGMIAN,Shmueli et al(2017)HENGLIANGLEYISELIEJUECEZHEPIANHAOZHONGTIGAOZHENGFUXIAOLVHEGONGPINGBIAOZHUNDEXIANGDUIQUANZHONG,BINGZUOGUOBIEBIJIAO。Cerdeiro et al(2018)YANJIUFAXIAN,ZI2008NIANJINRONGWEIJIYILAI,GEGEGUOJIADEZHENGCELINGYUSUOCAIQUDECUOSHILEIXINGBUTONG。YIXIEGUOJIASHISHISHENGTAIHUANJINGBAOHUZHENGCE,GUANTINGLEBUSHAOQIYE,CONGERZENGJIALEJIUYEDEYALI。Mahesh et al(2018)YINRUHUANJINGYINSUDIAOCHALEGUANYUGAISHANHUANJINGZHENGCEDEXIANGDUIGONGXIANDUIYUQUANQIUGEGUOZHENGFUJIANCEDEYINGXIANG,BINGBIJIAOLEZHEIXIEMAOYIZHENGCEDEZHIXINGQINGKUANG。

                        决战棋牌   4.LAIZILAODONGLIJIUYEDENGJINGJIYALI。

                        决战棋牌   JINGJIZENGZHANGYUWENDINGJIUYEZHIJIANCUNZAIZHONGYAOLIANXI。MAOYIYUJIUYEGUANXIDEZHENGLUNZHUYAOJIZHONGZAILIANGGEFANGMIAN,YISHIMAOYIYUJIUYEJIHUIDEXIANGGUANXING;ERSHIMAOYIDAOZHILEJIUYEZHILIANGTIGAOHAISHIJIANGDI。LIRU,LAOGONGQUANLI、LAODONGBAOCHOUSHIGAISHANHAISHIEHUALE。CHUANTONGZHIZAOYEZHERENWEI,ZHIZAOYEXIANGHAIWAISHUCHULEJIUYEJIHUI,DAOZHIJINGJISHUAITUIHESHIYELVJUGAOBUXIA。YINCI,ZHIZAOYEJIJIYOUSHUOGUOHUIHEZHENGFUCAIQUMAOYIBAOHUCUOSHI,TICHUZHIZAOYEHUIGUIBENTUCELVE。Bradford(2006)RENWEISHIYEXIANZHUDIYINGXIANGZHEMAOYIZHENGCE,LAODONGLIZHOUZHUANLVHEYITIHUALVSHENKEDIYINGXIANGDANGECHANYEDEFAZHAN。Bandyopadhyay et al(2011)ZAIXUANYONGFEINONGCHANPINKUAGUOMAOYIBAOHUSHUJUYANJIUYOUGUANMAOYIZHENGCEDEJIZHONGXIANYOUZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEJIASHESHIFAXIAN,"ZUOQING"ZHENGZHITIZHIJINJINDUIBUFENMAOYIZHENGCECUOSHICHANSHENGLEYOULIYULAODONGLIDEMAOYIZHENGCE,SHOURUBUPINGDENGHEGUOJIACENGMIANDEFUBAISIHUSHIMAOYIZHENGCEDEZHONGYAOJUEDINGYINSU。DUIYUGEZHONGMAOYIBAOHUCUOSHIERYAN,FUBAISIHUQINGXIANGYUTONGGUOZENGJIALAODONGLIFENGFUGUOJIADEMAOYIBAOHUHEJIANSHAOZIBENFENGFUGUOJIADEMAOYIBAOHULAISUNHAILAOGONGLIYI。

                        决战棋牌   Karacaovali & Baybars(2015)YANJIUBIAOMING,FAZHANZHONGGUOJIADEZHENGFUTONGGUOPINGHENGSHENGCHANZHEDEZHENGZHIZHICHIHEXIAOFEIZHEDEZHENGZHIZHICHILAIQUEDINGGUANSHUI,BINGDUISHENGCHANZHEDEFULIJIYUXIANGDUIYUPUTONGGONGMINGENGGAODEJINGJIZHICHI。YUQITALEISIXINGYEXIANGBI,JIUYE、LAODONGLICHENGBENHEYOUHUIMAOYIXIEDING(PTA)JINKOUFENEJIAOGAODEBUMEN,NENGGOUHUODEGENGDADEJINGJIBIZHONG。Chirs(2016)ANZHAOMEIGUODEMAOYIHUOBANGUOPAIXUFAXIAN,NENGGOUWEIJIUYEDAILAIXIANZHUYINGXIANGDECHUKOUMUBIAOGUOYICIWEIJIANADA(18%)、MOXIGE(14%)、ZHONGGUO(9%)、RIBEN(5%)、YINGGUO(4%)、DEGUO(3%)、HANGUO(3%)、HELAN(2%)。Kishishita(2019)TONGGUOGOUJIANJIANDANDELAODONGLILIUDONGDELIANGJIEDUANMOXING,KAOCHALELAODONGLIZAIXINGYEJIANLIUDONGDUIXUANJUDEYINGXIANG。YANJIUJIEGUOBIAOMING,LAODONGLILIUDONGYUMAOYIZIYOUHUAJUNHENGCHENGDUZHIJIANDEFEIXIANXINGGUANXISHIYOUYUWEITUO-DAILIGUANXIERCUNZAIDE。KAOLVDAODAIYIZHIMINZHUZHONGBUKEBIMIANDEZHENGZHIJIAYUXUANMINZHIJIANDELIYICHONGTU,YANJIUHAIFAXIAN,LAODONGLILIUDONGDEGAOCHENGBENSHIMAOYIZIYOUHUADEZHUYAOZHANGAI。YOUQIZAIDAIYIZHIMINZHUGUOJIA,JIAOGAODELAODONGLILIUDONGCHENGBENZAIMOUXIEQINGKUANGXIAZUAILEMAOYIZIYOUHUA。FADAGUOJIADEMAOYIBILEIKEYIBANGZHUDIJINENGGONGREN,MAOYIBAOHUHUISUIZHEJINENGSHUIPINGDETIGAOERJIANGDI。Bradford(2019)JIYUZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEMOXINGTICHULEFANDUIZHEIZHONGCHUANTONGGUANDIANDEZHENGJU,ZHICHUMAOYIBAOHUBINGBUHUISUIZHEJINENGSHUIPINGDETIGAOERJIANGDI,MAOYIBAOHUHEJINENGSHUIPINGSHIJISHANGJUYOUZHENGTAIFENBUGUANXI,JUYOUZHONGDENGJINENGDEXINGYEBIFENBULIANGDUANDEXINGYEHUIHUODEGENGDUODEBAOHU。

                        决战棋牌   MAOYIZHENGCEZHUYAOFANYINGZAIGUANSHUIHEFEIGUANSHUICUOSHIZHONG。Alexander(2019)XUANYONGNIANDUTEDINGCHANPINSHUJUFENXILE19SHIJIMODAO20SHIJICHUJIANADAMAOYIBAOHUZHENGCEDEYINGXIANG,YANJIUJIEGUOBIAOMING,ZI1879NIANLIANBANGZHENGFUTUIXINGBAOHUXINGGUANSHUITEDIANDE《GUOJIAZHENGCE》YILAI,RENMENDUIBAOHUZHUYIGAODUGUANZHU。JIANADAGUANSHUIBIAODEBIANHUAZHUYAOZHENDUIZHICHENGPINJINKOUCHANPIN,ZHEIXIECHANPINJUYOUXIANGDUIDUODETIDAIPIN,ZHEIXIETIDAIPINSHIYOUXIANGDUIDADECHENGSHIZHONGJUYOUZHENGZHIYINGXIANGLIDEGUONEIZHIZAOSHANGSHENGCHANDE,ZHEIZHONGZUOFAXIANRANJIUSHIGAODUBAOHUZHUYIDE。Timini(2019)JIEZHUMAOYIYINLIMOXING,ZHONGDIANGUANZHUZHONGGUOCHANPINCHUKOU:YISHICESHIJISHUXINGFEIGUANSHUICUOSHIYUFEIJISHUXINGFEIGUANSHUICUOSHIDEYIZHIXING;ERSHIYANZHENGFEIGUANSHUICUOSHI(NTM)DEXIAOGUOSHIFOUSHOUSHANGPINLEIXINGDEYINGXIANG。YANJIUJIEGUOFAXIAN,JISHUXINGFEIGUANSHUICUOSHIQINGXIANGYUDUIMAOYILIULIANGCHANSHENGYALI。

                          三、政府在贸易政策决策中的角色定位

                          DUIMAOYIZHENGCEJUECEGUOCHENGZHONGZHENGFUDEJIAOSEDINGWEI,BUTONGXUEZHECHIYOUBUTONGDEGUANDIAN。YIZHONGGUANDIANRENWEI,ZHENGFUJUYOU"DIAOTINGREN"DEXINGZHI,QIHUODONGJINJINSHIWEILEPINGHENGBUTONGDESHEHUIJITUANJIANDELIYICHONGTU;LINGYIZHONGGUANDIANRENWEI,ZHENGFUJUYOU"ZIZHIZHE"DEXINGZHI,TANENGGOUCHONGFENXINGSHIZISHENDEQUANLILAISHIXIANZISHENLIYIZUIDAHUADEMUBIAO。

                          (YI)ZHENGFUZUOWEI"DIAOTINGREN"DEJIAOSEDINGWEI

                          ZAIDAIYIZHIMINZHUGUOJIA,LIYIJITUANSHIZHENGZHIHUODONGDEZHUYAOCANYUZHEHEYINGXIANGZHE,YIXIELILUNJIADINGZHENGFUCHONGDANGDESHIGELIYIJITUANDE"DIAOTINGREN"JIAOSE。GAILEILILUNRENWEIMAOYIZHENGCESHIZHENGFUDUIBUTONGDELIYITUANTI,BAOKUOZHENGFUZISHEN、XINGYEXIEHUI、LAOGONGZUZHI、BENGUOHEWAIGUODEQIYE,YIJIXIAOFEIZHEDENGQUNTIZHENGZHIXUQIUDEFANYING。YOUYUZHENGFUZHIQIDAODIAOJIEBUTONGSHEHUIJITUANZHIJIANLIYICHONGTUDEZUOYONG,YINERQIZAIZHENGZHIJUECEZHONGBUJUYOUDULIDEYINGXIANG,ZHENGZHIJUECEDEXINGZHIQUJUEYUXUANMINHELIYIJITUANDEPIANHAO。LIYIJITUANLILUNRENWEI,YIGEXINGYEZUCHENGZHENGZHIYALIJITUANDENENGLIJIUJUEDINGLEGAIXINGYEHUODEBAOHUDESHUIPING。Yoshiaki & Masao(2011)TONGGUOFENXIGUOJIMAOYIFENPEIXIAOYINGDEZHENGZHIFANYINGSHIDECHU,ZAIZHIZAOYEZHONGJUYOUXIANGDUIYOUSHIDEJINGJITIKENENGTONGGUOMAOYIBAOHUSHIXIANJIAOKUAIDEJINGJIFAZHAN。Jentzsch(2017)FENXIZHANHOURIBENMAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJINGJIXUESHIRENWEI,GEBUMENLIYIDECHONGTUZUAILEQUANMIANZIYOUMAOYIDEFAZHAN。Baimbridge et al(2017)YIOUMENGWEILI,JIESHILEMAOYIZHENGCEBENSHENZAIHENDACHENGDUSHANGDULIYUOUMENG(EU)DEQITAZHENGCE,YINWEIGECHENGYUANGUORENGRANJUYOUJINGZHENGXING,SUOYIOUMENGYUQICHENGYUANGUOZHIJIANDELIYIBUHEXIE。LIRU,OUMENGCHENGYUANGUOZAINENGYUANHENONGYEBUMENDEMAOYIZHENGCEFANGMIANCUNZAIQIANSUOWEIYOUDEBUHEXIECHENGDU。YIXIECHENGYUANGUOMUQIANZHIXINGDEJINKOUSHULIANGXIANZHI、FANQINGXIAO、JISHUBIAOZHUN、HUANBAOYAOQIUDENGYIXILIEOUMENGGUANYONGDEFEIGUANSHUIBILEIYEBEITUIGUANGDAOOUMENGDEQITACHENGYUANGUOZHONG。WEILEBAOHUZISHENLIYI,CHENGYUANGUOZAISHISHIOUMENGXIANYOUZHENGCEDEJICHUSHANG,HAIKENENGYOUSHUOOUMENGDUIGENGDUOCHANPINDEJINKOUSHEZHIGENGGAODEMENJIAN,ZHEIJIANGBULIYUSHIJIEQITADIQUXIANGOUMENGCHUKOUSHANGPIN。Ikeda(2018)JIYUBENDIXINXIDEGUOJIMAOYIWANGLUOHEXIANGGUANCHENGBENWANGLUOZHONGGOUMOXINGRENWEI,ZAIZHENGFUMAOYIBAOHUZHENGCEBEIJINGXIA,CONGMEIGUODAORIBENDESHIPINJINKOUDAFUZENGJIA,SHIJINKOUCHENGBENJIANBAN;DUIYUJIXIELEICHANPIN,RIBENDUIMEIGUODECHUKOUDAFUXIAJIANG,CHUKOUCHENGBENZENGJIALEYIBEI,ERDUIOUMENGDECHUKOUZEZENGJIALE。XIANRAN,ZHENGFUZAIBUTONGCHANYEZHIJIANDEMAOYIZHENGCEDEXIAOLVCUNZAICHAYI。

                          政府作为调停人的另一个模型是Caves(1976)提出的推进器模型(Adding Machine Model)。该模型关心的核心问题是一个行业的选举力量。由于个人消费者缺乏信息,并且相对于收益来说,政治活动的成本太大,他们往往不直接反对贸易保护,所以贸易保护模式由生产者利益集团形成。由于政府官员希望选举概率最大化,因而获得贸易保护的关键在于一个行业的选民数量。该理论强调的不是每个行业必须进行政治活动的动机,而是行业所拥有的选举力量。然而,行业选举力量主要指标是劳动-产出系数和地理分散程度,这两个指标与行业保护水平之间的预期表现为正相关的关系。研究结果表明,高度竞争的行业倾向于集体游说,而高度集中的行业倾向于单独游说(Bombardini & Trebb,2012)。贸易保护政策在两部门贸易模式(Krugman,1980)下进行的,其考虑了工资、进出口补贴、税收等变量,并将贸易政策与有效分配进行比较(Campolmi et al,2014)。Missaglia & Valensisi(2014)进一步考查了贸易自由化的总体影响,各国贸易自由化程度因其财政税收决战棋牌影响会略有缩减,贸易政策开始向贸易保护主义方向倾斜。Mitra(2015)认为应该采用统一关税政策,因为它将导致相对价格扭曲程度最小,同时又减少了游说的动机,并使其无效。Madeira(2016)借助经济学中的新贸易理论,在引入企业异质性和游说时发现,由于成员企业之间存在竞争性贸易优惠,行业内部贸易增加,各个公司之间的政治活动也变得更加活跃。单边贸易模式表明,进口关税具有最佳创收水平,因此无论自由化经济是大还是小,贸易保护总是可取的(Demidova,2017)。进一步研究行业内部两种外商直接投资模式发现,在不同外商直接投资模式下,对行业游说保护贸易的影响也各有不同。在绿地投资的情况下,公司游说的动力会减少。相比之下,在并购投资的情况下,外国公司收购国内公司,国内生产者集中度应该增加。这反过来可能加剧该行业的政治"权重",或使国内公司更容易协调集体行动。因此,被并购部门的国内企业能够进一步努力游说获得贸易保护(Hak et al,2018)。面对高关税,企业可能将其产品误分类为低关税税率,如果存在政治利益,则会因为官僚能力的低下限制政府对关税的实施能力。

                        决战棋牌   (ER)ZHENGFUZUOWEI"ZIZHIZHE"DEJIAOSEDINGWEI

                          DANGZHENGFUZUOWEI"ZIZHIZHE"SHI,QISHOUYAOKAOLVDESHIGUOJIAZHENGTILIYI。YINER,GAILEIMOXINGJIANGMAOYIZHENGCESHIWEIZHENGFUCHUYUGUOJIAHESHEHUILIYIDEKAOLVERTIGONGDEGONGGONGWUPIN,ZHENGFUMUBIAOHANSHUZAIQISUOSHIXINGDEBAOHUSHUIPINGHEJIEGOUXIADEYISHIXIANZUIDAHUA(Herrmann et al,2017)。Corden(1971)TICHULE"BAOSHOUDESHEHUIFULIHANSHU",QIHEXINSIXIANGSHIZHENGFUJIANGJIYUYINJINKOUJIZENGERZAOSHOUYANZHONGSUNSHIDEXINGYEYIGENGDADEBAOHULIDU。Lavergne(1983)ZAICorden(1971)BAOSHOUDESHEHUIFULIHANSHUDEJICHUSHANGCHUANGLILELISHIYINGXIANGMOXING,RENWEIYIGEXINGYEDELISHIBAOHUSHUIPINGDUIDANGQIANBAOHUSHUIPINGYOUHENQIANGDEYINGXIANG。Voeten(2012)RENWEI,GUOJIAJIANDEGONGTONGZHENGZHILIYISHILIANGHAOGUOJIGUANXIDEZHONGYAOBIAOZHI,ZHENGZHIGUANXIBUHAODEGUOJIAXUYAOYOUEWAIDEZHENGZHIGUANXIDAILI。ERQIE,MAOYIBAOHUHUISUIZHELIFADAIBIAOZHIDEXUANJUGUIZEERBIANHUA。ZAIJIESHIZHEIZHONGXIANGGUANXINGSHI,XUANQUGUIMOHEDANGPAILILIANGDOUBUZHONGYAO,GUOJIAGUIMOQUESHIHENZHONGYAO,DANBINGBUNENGJIESHIZHENGTIXIANGGUANXING(Hatfield & Hauk,2014)。MAOYIBAOHUZHENGCEKEYIGAIBIANGONGGONGWUPINSHULIANG,ZHEISHIYINWEIZHENGSHOUGUANSHUICHANSHENGDESHOURUXIAOYINGKEYIZENGJIADUIGONGGONGLIYIDEGONGXIAN,DAOZHIBUDUANKUODADEGONGGONGBUMENJIZHANJINKOUJINGZHENGXINGYEBUMEN(Biswas,2015)。Sarah(2017)CONGLIANGFANGMIANYANJIULEZHUANZHIHEMINZHUHUAXIADEMAOYIZHENGCEXINMOSHI,YISHITONGGUOYANJIUZHENGFUXINGSHIYUMAOYIZHENGCEZHIJIANDENEIZAILIANXI,GENGSHENRUDILIJIEZHENGZHIZHIDUYUJINGJIXIAOLVZHIJIANDEGUANXI;ERSHIZHANSHIZHUANZHIZHENGQUANRUHECAOZONGMAOYIZHENGCE,YIBIANZAIMIANDUIYONGJIUXINGDESHIJIEJIAGECHONGJISHIBAOCHIDUIQUANLIDEKONGZHI,CONGERWEIZHONGXINSHENSHIMAOYIZHENGCEDUIJISHUCHONGJIDEFANYINGDAKAILEDAMEN。GAIMOXINGJIESHILE1815-1846NIANJIANMAOYIZHENGCEZHIDINGSHIJIAN,QIJIANYINGGUODAFUDUFANGKAIMAOYI,ERPULUSHIZEZAILIANGSHISHICHANGZENGJIALEBAOHUZHUYI。

                        决战棋牌   (SAN)LIYIJITUANDEZHENGZHIZHICHI

                        决战棋牌   LIYIJITUANMOXINGLILUNBIAOMING,LIYIJITUANJIQIYOUSHUOZAIMAOYIZHENGCEDEZHENGZHIJUECEGUOCHENGZHONGJUYOUYIDINGDEYINGXIANGLI。Hillman(1989)SHOUCITICHUZHENGZHIZHICHIMOXING。GAIMOXINGJIASHEZHENGFUDEMUBIAOSHIWEILEMANZUQIZHENGZHIZHICHIZUIDAHUA。ZHENGFUWEILEZUIDAXIANDUDIDEDAOLIYIJITUANYIJIXIAOFEIZHEDEZHENGZHIZHICHI,XUZAILIYIJITUANYUXIAOFEIZHEZHIJIANZUOCHUQUANHENG。ZHENGFUXUXUANDINGYIGEJUNHENGGUANSHUISHUIPING,SHILAIZILIYIJITUANYUXIAOFEIZHEDEZONGTIZHENGZHIZHICHIZUIDAHUA。

                        决战棋牌   ZAILIYIJITUANMOXINGRIYIWANSHANDEGUOCHENGZHONG,YIBUFENXUEZHEJIEHEXINDEBIANLIANGHEYINZILAIKAOLVLIYIJITUANDEYINGXIANG,ZHEIXIEYANJIUSHIDELIYIJITUANMOXINGDEYANJIUFANWEIZHUJIANKUODA,ZHEIYIGUOCHENGYEKEYILIJIEWEILIYIJITUANMOXINGDEGUANGHUA。Ixchel(2017)TANTAOLEJIANGLIYIJITUANDAIBIAONARUOUMENGJIGOU(EAs)ZUIZHONGYAODEJUECEJIGOUDEJUEDING。ZHENGFUJIANGUANXI(IGR)SHIZHENGFUZHIJIANZAICHUIZHIHESHUIPINGSHANGDEZONGHENGJIAOCUODEGUANXI。YANJIUBIAOMING,GEJIGOUZHIJIANCUNZAIXIANGDANGDADECHAYI,YIXIEJIGOUYOUZHENGSHIGUIZE,BINGMINGQUEFENPEILIYIXIANGGUANZHEZHIJIANDEDAIBIAORENSHU。CIWAI,LIYIJITUANDAIBIAOYOUQUANZAIYIXIEJUYOUIGRDEJIGOUZHONGTOUPIAO,ERZAIQITAJIGOUZHONG,TAMENZHIYOUZIXUNJIAOSE。TONGCHANGLAIKAN,DAIBIAOYOUZIBENDAIBIAO(LIRUGONGYE)、LAOGONGDAIBIAO(LIRUGONGHUI)HEGONGMINDAIBIAO(LIRUFEIZHENGFUZUZHIHUOXIAOFEIZHETUANTI)SANDALEIQUNTI。XINXIJIGOUBIGUANLIRENWUDEJIGOUGENGYOUKENENGYONGYOUIGR,OUZHOUDEYIHUICANYUXUANJUGENGYOUKENENGDAOZHIWEIIGRTIGONGTIAOKUAN。OUZHOUSHIPINANQUANJUHEOUZHOUGONGZUOANQUANYUJIANKANGJUDEANLIYANJIUBIAOMING,LIYIJITUANKEYITONGGUOTUIDONGOUMENGJIGOUJIANGIGRNARUXUANJULAIFAHUIZHONGYAOZUOYONG。Breunig et al(2018)JIANGLIYIJITUANMOXINGYONGYUCESUANZHENGCEWENDINGXING,BINGXUANYONG1984-2010NIANJIANMEIGUOGEZHOUYUSUANHANSHU,CAIYONGGUANGYIJIAQUANHUIGUIMOXINGJINXINGYANJIUFAXIAN,BUHUO(DILIYIJITUANMIDU,DIGUANZHUDU)、SISUO(GAOLIYIJITUANMIDU,GAODUGUANZHU)DAOZHIDISHUIPINGDEZHENGCEBODONG、WENDING(ZHONGDENGLIYIJITUANMIDU,JIANXIEXINGGUANZHU)DAOZHIGAOSHUIPINGDEZHENGCEBODONGDENGSANZHONGLEIXINGQINGKUANG。

                          四、总结

                          ZAIBUTONGZHENGZHIJINGJIBEIJINGXIA,SHANGSHUYANJIUSHIYINGYONGZHENGZHIJINGJIXUELAIJIESHIMAOYIZHENGCEXINGCHENGWENTIDEYOUYICHANGSHIHETANSUO。DUIYUMAOYIBAOHUZHENGCEDEZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEFENXI,HAIXUYAOWANSHANYIXIALIANGFANGMIAN:YIFANGMIAN,XIANYOUMOXINGYIJINGRENWEI,ZAIBUTONGZHENGZHIJINGJIBEIJINGXIA,ZHENGZHIXIANJINZUOWEIYINGXIANGZHENGFUDESHOUDUANBINGBUHESHI,DANSHIXUYAOMINGQUEGEFANGZHENGZHICANYUZHEDAODISHITONGGUOHEZHONGFANGSHILAIYINGXIANGJUECEZHEDE;LINGYIFANGMIAN,SUIZHEWOGUODUIWAIKAIFANGDEBUFABUDUANJIAKUAI,YEYINGGAIKAOLVWAIGUOZHENGFUZUOWEIWAIGUOLIYIJITUANDEDAIBIAO,RUHELIYONGGEZHONGGUOJIMAOYIGUIZEDUIZHONGGUOZHENGFUZAOCHENGLENAXIEYINGXIANG。CIWAI,XUEJIEYEXUYAOGUANZHUYIXIAJIGEFANGMIAN:

                        决战棋牌   DIYI,DUIGUOJIMAOYIZHENGCEJIQIYUZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEDEGUANLIANJINXINGYANJIU。BENWENRENWEIYAOYIGUOJIMAOYIZHENGCEWEIZHUYAOYANJIUDUIXIANG,DUIQIFANWEINEIDEZHENGZHIJINGJIXUEJINXINGZHONGDIANYANJIUHEFENXI;CONGGUOJIHEGUONEICENGMIANYANJIUMAOYIZHENGCEZHENGZHIJINGJIXUELILUN,CONGYANJIUDUP、XUANZEMAOYIZHENGCEGONGJUYIJIFENXIMAOYIZHENGCEJUECESANGEFANGMIANDUIQIJUTIYINGYONGJINXINGFENXI。DANGJINFADAGUOJIADEGUOJIMAOYIZHENGCESHISUIZHEZHEIXIEGUOJIALAODONGSHENGCHANLVDEBIANHUAERBIANHUADE,LIRUMEIGUOLAODONGSHENGCHANLVDEXIANGDUIBIANHUAYUMEIGUOGUOJIMAOYIZHENGCEYOU"BAOHUMAOYI-ZIYOUMAOYI-BAOHUMAOYI"DEZHUANBIANGUOCHENGXIANGQIHE,XUYAODUICISHENRUYANJIU。

                        决战棋牌   DIER,BEIJIESHIBIANLIANGXUANQUYINGGAIGENJUSUOXUANYONGSHUJUTEDIANERDING。DUIYUYIXIEFADAGUOJIAERYAN,GUONEIGEBUMENZHIJIANDEMINGYIGUANSHUILVCHAJUBINGBUDA,WANGWANGWUFADAIBIAOGEBUMENSUOSHOUDAODEMAOYIBAOHUSHUIPING,YINCIZAIDUOSHUWENXIANZHONGCAIYONGFEIGUANSHUIBILEIDAITIMINGYIGUANSHUILV。DUIYUYIXIEFAZHANZHONGGUOJIA,QINGKUANGZEYOUSUOBUTONG,GEGEBUMENJIANDEMINGYIGUANSHUILVCHAJUBIJIAOMINGXIAN,ERFEIGUANSHUIBILEIZEJIAOSHAOSHIYONG。YINCI,CAIYONGMINGYIGUANSHUILVHUOZHESHIJIBAOHULVZUOWEIBEIJIESHIBIANLIANGBIJIAOHESHI。

                          第三,现有研究对贸易保护政策表现形式的界定不够全面。贸易保护政策的表现形式非常多,而在大多数贸易保护政治经济学理论中,只将关税作为贸易保护的表现形式。但是对于非关税壁垒,以及与服务贸易紧密相连的政府管制等贸易措施的研究仍然是非常欠缺。所以,如何将非关税壁垒和一些政府管制措施转化为定量指标,从而构建能反映贸易保护程度的综合指标体系,将是非常必要的。

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